When asked how a listing price was determined, most agents will tell you that they looked at three comparable properties that closed within the last six months. When asked where these comps are located, the answer is usually, "In the subdivision. Duh!"
That may be fine and dandy for an agent listing in a broad Seller's Market, but in the broad Buyer's Market of today, the same agent should expect a loooooooong listing period. This credulous creature is probably not selling too many of his listings because his listings are not priced right, (this is not say that a quick study of a subdivision's recent past will not bear the right price some of the times -- statistically even a blind squirrel gets a nut some of the times).
First, what is a market?
A market is demand for a commodity.
A house is a commodity.
All of the houses located in Cobb County is a market.
This is a broader housing market.
A house with certain features is a commodity.
All of the houses located in the Suchensuch School District, valued between $350,000 and $500,000 is a market.
This is a narrower housing market.
A house with specific features is a commodity.
All of the houses located with a two-mile radius, valued between $350,000 and $400,000, contemporary design, with four bedrooms, a basement, and a modern kitchen is a market.
This is a specific housing market.
Remember, each house is unique; no two are exactly alike, so study of several different markets is needed to interpret the value of a single house.
Secondly, what is market value is?
Market Value is determined by only one factor: where the demand for a commodity meets the supply of that commodity.
this can also be written as:
Market Value is determined by only one factor: what an individual is willing to pay for a specific property -- that one time.
You cannot determine market value. The seller cannot determine market value. An appraiser cannot determine market value.
Only a buyer can determine market value!
If the house sells, market value is what the seller will get in exchange for the house; everytime.
Once again, market value is determined at the time of a sale, and only at the time of a sale. For this reason, the "market value" of a commodity may always be changing, because with each new sale of a commodity within a comparable market, the interpreted value of all other commodities within that same comparable market will also change. This fluctuation will show a trend - upward (possibly into a Seller's Market), downward (possibly into a Buyer's Market), or remain flat.
Notice the terminology: an agent interprets value (using tools to do so) and a buyer determines value (by willingness to do so). This is because until someone comes along and buys at a certain price, the market value of a listed house is nothing more than a hypothesis.
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Three main tools an agent should use to interpret market value:
-Absorption Report
-Macro Comparable Market Analysis (CMA)
-Micro Comparable Market Analysis (CMA)
How do these tools help to interpret market value?
An Absorption Report is a general comparison of the broader market, a snapshot. It is helpful because it shows the current number of properties in a given market (price range and MLS area) that are actively for sale and the number of properties in that market (price range and MLS area) that have actually sold within the last twelve months. From this, the number of months of inventory (at the current rate of absorption) can be surmised.
After knowing the months of market inventory, determining whether the subject property is currently in a Buyer's Market or Seller's Market is quite easy: properties in an area with four or less months of inventory are in a Seller's Market, five months or more are in a Buyer's Market. Properties in an market of twelve months or more are in an extreme Buyer's Market.
Why is this helpful to know? Because properties in a Buyer's Market need to be priced more aggressively (right at or just below the price of Sold Comparables) because there is much more competition and less demand. By the same token, properties in a Seller's Market can be priced right at or a bit higher than Sold Comparables because there is a shortage of inventory and more demand.
If you believe the subject property's value to be near the edge of two (absorption report) market-price ranges, opt to list in the one that is more of a Seller's Market.
Note: the more Sold properties a given market has, the more accurate the inventory figure, and thereby the determination of Buyer's or Seller's Market, will be.
Another Note: a Seller's Market sticks out like a sore thumb in the Absorption Report. That thumb points directly at house-flippers and prospecting agents. Selling property in a Seller's Market is where everyone wants to be. Look for it! Prospect to it!
The Macro CMA is a study of (mostly) comparable properties in a geographical 'area of interest' to a buyer. That area may be an entire MLS area, or a high school district, or any other wide, geographical area that likely buyers will consider buying in.
When searching for comparables, use factors like number of bedrooms (don't worry so much about number of baths -- but be careful about what the listing agent considers a bedroom), whether or not it has a basement, the overall size of the property (and lot size if larger than a few acres), and use the same price range as on the Absorption Report (if on the line, use two price ranges). Do not exclude properties if they are of a different style (traditional, contemporary, mixed-style) because that is a specific taste. Most buyers looking for certain amenities and size of property, will consider different styles of construction.
The Macro CMA is a great tool because it shows the amount of competition (active listings) and it shows Solds that are more comparable to the subject than the Absorption Report.
The Micro CMA is the smallest area of study (most specific), and is usually the subdivision, but if there is no subdivision -or- if the subdivision is too small -or- if the subdivision does not have many Sold Comparables, then the Micro CMA will be three to five properties within a few miles radius of the subject that are extremely comparable; having the same number of bedrooms, bathrooms, basement, construction style, etc.
If you preform a good Micro CMA, no adjustments to the subject need to be made.
Note: you should put the most emphasis on Sold and Pending Comparables in your CMAs. The Solds show the actual price someone else got for their properties while the Pendings show the price that attracted an offer. Your Sold comps need to be no older than a few months. Active listings are not to be used to determine list price, only to show current competition, so do not put much (if any) emphasis there.
So, now let's answer the original question: How do you determine market value?
You don't! But you can interpret market value using the Absorption Report to figure market trend, and using the Macro CMA to compliment the Micro CMA when honing in on a price.
Hitting the bulls eye with the right price at the time of listing is the single most profitable action you can do for yourself and your client. Take time researching it and explaining it, then insist on it!(for more on this topic, click here)